The Worst-Performing Currencies of 2016

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The United Kingdom's surprising decision to leave the European Union, known as the "Brexit," sent the British pound sterling (GBP) tumbling in foreign exchange (forex) currency markets in 2016. In fact, the pound lost more value than any of the world's major currencies from January to mid-July, and plunged to 30-year lows in the process. It isn't the only currency that struggled, however, and some have been far worse. Minor currencies such as the Argentine peso (ARS), Nigerian naira (NGN), Egyptian pound (EGP) and Venezuelan bolivar (VEF) have each fallen significantly against the U.S. dollar (USD).
While heightened uncertainty or questionable monetary policy helps suppress currency used in the United Kingdom, Egypt and Argentina, the calamity in Venezuela is of a different magnitude altogether. The Nigerian situation is unique because the naira was pegged to the U.S. dollar for several months before being allowed to float on June 20, 2016, making it difficult to conduct an apples-to-apples comparison.

Venezuelan Bolivar

Venezuela had a very difficult first half of 2016, and prospects are poor for the second half. Masses of Venezuelans struggle with food shortages, power outages and an increasingly militaristic government desperate to maintain control. It is difficult to get accurate economic information from Venezuela, but there is serious reason to doubt the validity of government statistics that show a 62.2% annual inflation rate.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released projections in April that the estimated annual inflation in Venezuela during 2016 would be 481%. By July, those estimates rose to 700%. Based on current government policy and expected economic declines, the 2017 inflation projection is a dizzying 1,642%.
The situation is quickly resembling a classic hyperinflation pattern. In 2013, Venezuelan inflation was estimated at 41%. This rose to 63% by 2014 and 275% in 2015. To put this into perspective, an American could exchange one U.S. dollar for approximately four Venezuelan bolivars in 2012. The exchange ratio climbed to $1 for 900 bolivars by the end of 2015. If the IMF's projections are accurate, $1 could purchase between 90,000 and 100,000 bolivars by the end of 2017.

Nigerian Naira

The worst-performing currency in 2016 is the naira. By July, the NGN lost approximately 29.5% value on the official market, trading at more than 360 NGN/USD and more than 470 NGN/GBP. All of those losses occurred within a six-week window after the naira began free-floating in mid-June. Sharp swings in relative currency prices are customary when switching from a fixed-rate to a free-floating-rate regime, but Nigeria has a history of dramatic and worrying inflation.

Egyptian Pound

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) strategically devalued the Egyptian pound in 2016, in an attempt to drive out illegal transactions in Egypt's huge black market. Unlike the naira or pound sterling, the Egyptian pound still operates on a fixed exchange-rate system, though there are expectations that the CBE might adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime in response to tough economic conditions.
The Egyptian pound started out 2016 at a fixed rate of 7.73 EGP/USD, well above the going black market rate of roughly 9.5 to 11 EGP/USD. The CBE's decision to devalue the pound should help alleviate this imbalance, but some worry that the extra currency will exacerbate Egypt's already troubling inflation rate.

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